Yankees at Padres
Last play · Samad Taylor strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres0%
NYY 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 5 – 1 SD
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cody Bellinger singles on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. José Caballero scores. Austin Wells scores. Paul Goldschmidt to 3rd. (inning 2) — -15% Yankees
4Manny Machado homers (25) on a fly ball to left center field.5–1
3George Lombard Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Ben Rice scores.5–0
2Cody Bellinger singles on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. José Caballero scores. Austin Wells scores. Paul Goldschmidt to 3rd.4–0
2Paul Goldschmidt walks. Spencer Jones scores. José Caballero to 3rd. Austin Wells to 2nd.2–0
2Spencer Jones doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Ben Rice scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
