Yankees at Padres
Last play · Luis Campusano homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Dustin Harris scores.
Win probability
Padres100%
NYY 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 1 – 1 SD
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis Campusano homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Dustin Harris scores. (inning 10) — +39% Padres
10Luis Campusano homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Dustin Harris scores.2–3
10Spencer Jones singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Luis García Jr. scores. Spencer Jones to 2nd.2–1
3Ben Rice homers (36) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
2Xander Bogaerts singles on a fly ball to center fielder Trent Grisham. Ty France scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
