Yankees at Padres
Last play · Ben Rice called out on strikes.
Win probability
Padres100%
NYY 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 0 – 3 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Amed Rosario singles on a ground ball to pitcher Adrian Morejon. Paul Goldschmidt scores. Spencer Jones scores. Throwing error by pitcher Adrian Morejon. (inning 8) — -16% Yankees
8Amed Rosario singles on a ground ball to pitcher Adrian Morejon. Paul Goldschmidt scores. Spencer Jones scores. Throwing error by pitcher Adrian Morejon.3–4
8Spencer Jones doubles (11) on a ground ball to left fielder Jase Bowen. Cody Bellinger scores. Paul Goldschmidt to 3rd.1–4
7Luis Campusano homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.0–4
1Manny Machado homers (26) on a line drive to center field.0–3
1Jake Cronenworth homers (5) on a line drive to left field.0–2
1Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (20) on a line drive to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
