Dodgers at Giants
Last play · Alex Freeland strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Giants100%
LAD 0%SF 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 1 – 3 SF
Giants led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-207 / +169
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Casey Schmitt out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Alex Call. Luis Arraez scores. Matt Chapman to 3rd. (inning 1) — +9% Giants
4Patrick Bailey challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Hyeseong Kim walks. Teoscar Hernández scores. Max Muncy to 3rd. Dalton Rushing to 2nd.1–3
1Jung Hoo Lee singles on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Matt Chapman scores. Rafael Devers to 2nd.0–3
1Casey Schmitt out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Alex Call. Luis Arraez scores. Matt Chapman to 3rd.0–2
1Rafael Devers singles on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Willy Adames scores. Luis Arraez to 3rd. Matt Chapman to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
