Marlins at Giants
Last play · Luis Arraez grounds out, third baseman Javier Sanoja to first baseman Connor Norby.
Win probability
Giants0%
MIA 100%SF 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 8 – 3 SF
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-108 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Liam Hicks homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. Xavier Edwards scores. (inning 1) — -16% Marlins
8Jung Hoo Lee homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.9–4
6Otto Lopez singles on a line drive to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Kyle Stowers scores.9–3
5Luis Arraez singles on a line drive to left fielder Kyle Stowers. Eric Haase scores.8–3
5Eric Haase doubles (1) on a line drive to right fielder Owen Caissie. Drew Gilbert scores.8–2
5Drew Gilbert singles on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Heliot Ramos scores.8–1
4Connor Norby homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Owen Caissie scores. Graham Pauley scores.8–0
3Liam Hicks out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Kyle Stowers scores.5–0
2Graham Pauley singles on a line drive to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Owen Caissie scores.4–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
