Marlins at Giants
Last play · Xavier Edwards lines out sharply to left fielder Heliot Ramos.
Win probability
Giants100%
MIA 0%SF 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 3 – 1 SF
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+102 / -122
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Casey Schmitt homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Jung Hoo Lee scores. Matt Chapman scores. (inning 7) — +36% Giants
7Casey Schmitt homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Jung Hoo Lee scores. Matt Chapman scores.3–6
6Drew Gilbert singles on a ground ball to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Rafael Devers scores.3–3
6Rafael Devers doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Casey Schmitt scores.3–2
3Luis Arraez grounds into a force out, first baseman Kyle Stowers to shortstop Otto Lopez. Jung Hoo Lee scores. Matt Chapman out at 2nd. Throwing error by shortstop Otto Lopez.3–1
2Graham Pauley homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Xavier Edwards scores. Liam Hicks scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
