Marlins at Giants
Last play · Agustín Ramírez grounds into a double play, pitcher Ryan Walker to second baseman Luis Arraez to first baseman Rafael Devers. Jakob Marsee out at 2nd. Agustín Ramírez out at 1st.
Win probability
Giants100%
MIA 0%SF 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 1 – 1 SF
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-108 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Casey Schmitt homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Matt Chapman scores. (inning 6) — +31% Giants
9Jakob Marsee singles on a ground ball to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Owen Caissie scores.2–6
8Luis Arraez doubles (2) on a line drive to left fielder Kyle Stowers. Patrick Bailey scores.1–6
8Heliot Ramos homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.1–5
6Patrick Bailey singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Heriberto Hernández. Jung Hoo Lee scores. Heliot Ramos to 3rd. Patrick Bailey to 2nd.1–4
6Casey Schmitt homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Matt Chapman scores.1–3
5Drew Gilbert homers (2) on a line drive to right field.1–1
3Xavier Edwards singles on a line drive to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Agustín Ramírez scores. Connor Norby to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
