Padres at Giants
Last play · Manny Machado strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Giants100%
SD 0%SF 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 2 SF
Giants led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Casey Schmitt homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 1) — +14% Giants
9Ramón Laureano homers (5) on a fly ball to center field.2–3
6Rafael Devers out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Luis Arraez scores.1–3
1Rafael Devers singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Luis Arraez scores. Heliot Ramos to 3rd.1–2
1Casey Schmitt homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.1–1
1Jackson Merrill homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
