Padres at Giants
SD10–
SF5Last play · Christian Koss strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Giants0%
SD 100%SF 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 7 – 4 SF
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-102 / -118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Sung-Mun Song doubles (1) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Nick Castellanos scores. Luis Campusano scores. Sung-Mun Song to 3rd. Sung-Mun Song advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by shortstop Willy Adames. (inning 4) — -26% Padres
8Miguel Andujar lines out to left fielder Heliot Ramos.10–5
8Jackson Merrill doubles (7) on a line drive to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Sung-Mun Song scores.9–5
7Jesus Rodriguez homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.8–5
6Miguel Andujar singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Jackson Merrill scores.8–4
5Nick Castellanos out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Miguel Andujar scores.7–4
4Jackson Merrill singles on a line drive to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Sung-Mun Song scores.6–4
4Sung-Mun Song doubles (1) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Nick Castellanos scores. Luis Campusano scores. Sung-Mun Song to 3rd. Sung-Mun Song advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by shortstop Willy Adames.5–4
4Nick Castellanos singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.3–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.