Padres at Giants
Last play · Casey Schmitt strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Giants0%
SD 100%SF 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 1 SF
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-102 / -118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ty France triples (2) on a line drive to right fielder Jesus Rodriguez. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Ramón Laureano scores. (inning 7) — -31% Padres
8Xander Bogaerts homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. Manny Machado scores.5–1
7Ty France triples (2) on a line drive to right fielder Jesus Rodriguez. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Ramón Laureano scores.3–1
5Rafael Devers homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.1–1
4Gavin Sheets homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
