Pirates at Giants
Last play · Ryan O'Hearn grounds out, third baseman Matt Chapman to first baseman Rafael Devers.
Win probability
Giants100%
PIT 0%SF 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 1 – 2 SF
Giants led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7 ↑
fair over 47.3% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Marcell Ozuna homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 2) — -20% Pirates
9Spencer Horwitz singles on a line drive to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Oneil Cruz scores. Konnor Griffin to 3rd.2–5
7Luis Arraez singles on a ground ball to right fielder Billy Cook. Heliot Ramos scores. Drew Gilbert scores. Jesus Rodriguez to 2nd.1–5
7Drew Gilbert singles on a ground ball to right fielder Billy Cook. Willy Adames scores. Heliot Ramos to 3rd.1–3
4Heliot Ramos singles on a ground ball to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Rafael Devers scores. Matt Chapman out at 3rd on the throw, center fielder Oneil Cruz to third baseman Jared Triolo.1–2
2Rafael Devers homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
2Marcell Ozuna homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
