Pirates at Giants
PIT13–
SF3Last play · Jung Hoo Lee lines out to left fielder Nick Yorke.
Win probability
Giants0%
PIT 100%SF 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 2 – 1 SF
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryce Eldridge homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 5) — +20% Giants
9Eric Haase singles on a line drive to left fielder Nick Yorke. Logan Porter scores. Matt Chapman to 3rd. Drew Gilbert to 2nd.13–3
9Drew Gilbert walks. Heliot Ramos scores. Logan Porter to 3rd. Matt Chapman to 2nd.13–2
9Ryan O'Hearn grounds into a double play, shortstop Willy Adames to first baseman Bryce Eldridge. Brandon Lowe scores. Jared Triolo out at 2nd. Ryan O'Hearn out at 1st.13–1
9Jared Triolo singles on a ground ball to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Oneil Cruz scores. Brandon Lowe to 3rd.12–1
9Brandon Lowe doubles (9) on a line drive to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Joey Bart scores. Oneil Cruz to 3rd.11–1
7Ryan O'Hearn singles on a ground ball to pitcher Gregory Santos. Brandon Lowe scores. Bryan Reynolds to 2nd.10–1
7Brandon Lowe triples (1) on a line drive to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Joey Bart scores. Oneil Cruz scores.9–1
7Joey Bart singles on a fly ball to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Spencer Horwitz scores.7–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.