Pirates at Giants
Last play · Jesus Rodriguez singles on a line drive to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn. Heliot Ramos scores. Matt Chapman to 3rd. Drew Gilbert to 2nd.
Win probability
Giants100%
PIT 0%SF 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 3 – 2 SF
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Willy Adames singles on a line drive to left fielder Billy Cook. Luis Arraez scores. Christian Koss scores. (inning 10) — +62% Giants
12Jesus Rodriguez singles on a line drive to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn. Heliot Ramos scores. Matt Chapman to 3rd. Drew Gilbert to 2nd.6–7
10Willy Adames singles on a line drive to left fielder Billy Cook. Luis Arraez scores. Christian Koss scores.6–6
10Spencer Horwitz doubles (6) on a line drive to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Nick Gonzales scores. Marcell Ozuna scores.6–4
6Matt Chapman doubles (7) on a fly ball to left fielder Nick Yorke. Heliot Ramos scores.4–4
6Heliot Ramos doubles (10) on a line drive to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn. Rafael Devers scores.4–3
6Spencer Horwitz doubles (5) on a line drive to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Ryan O'Hearn scores.4–2
5Oneil Cruz homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field.3–2
4Heliot Ramos homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.2–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
