White Sox at Giants
Last play · Miguel Vargas strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Giants100%
CWS 0%SF 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCWS 4 – 8 SF
Giants led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+103 / -124
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%White Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Rafael Devers hits a grand slam (7) to left center field. Willy Adames scores. Luis Arraez scores. Casey Schmitt scores. (inning 5) — +35% Giants
7Miguel Vargas homers (12) on a fly ball to left field.5–8
5Rafael Devers hits a grand slam (7) to left center field. Willy Adames scores. Luis Arraez scores. Casey Schmitt scores.4–8
5Edgar Quero singles on a fly ball to left fielder Jesus Rodriguez. Miguel Vargas scores.4–4
5Colson Montgomery grounds out, second baseman Luis Arraez to first baseman Casey Schmitt. Munetaka Murakami scores. Miguel Vargas to 3rd. Sam Antonacci to 2nd.3–4
4Luisangel Acuña out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Victor Bericoto. Edgar Quero scores. Derek Hill to 3rd.2–4
3Casey Schmitt homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Luis Arraez scores.1–4
1Rafael Devers doubles (13) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Tristan Peters. Casey Schmitt scores.1–2
1Casey Schmitt doubles (9) on a ground ball to right fielder Derek Hill. Willy Adames scores.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
