D-backs at Giants
Last play · Daniel Susac called out on strikes.
Win probability
Giants0%
AZ 100%SF 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 4 – 2 SF
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 49.4% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+108 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Rafael Devers doubles (14) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Willy Adames scores. Luis Arraez scores. (inning 4) — +29% Giants
6Ketel Marte singles on a line drive to center fielder Harrison Bader. Gabriel Moreno scores. Jose Fernandez scores.6–2
5Adrian Del Castillo singles on a line drive to center fielder Harrison Bader. Geraldo Perdomo scores.4–2
5Geraldo Perdomo singles on a ground ball to right fielder Drew Gilbert. Ketel Marte scores.3–2
5Ketel Marte doubles (11) on a fly ball to left fielder Casey Schmitt. Tommy Troy scores.2–2
4Rafael Devers doubles (14) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Willy Adames scores. Luis Arraez scores.1–2
3Gabriel Moreno homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
