D-backs at Giants
Last play · Casey Schmitt strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Giants0%
AZ 100%SF 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 3 – 2 SF
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 49.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-114 / -106
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gabriel Moreno out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Victor Bericoto. Ryan Waldschmidt scores. (inning 2) — -15% D-backs
9Willy Adames homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.7–5
8Rafael Devers doubles (15) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Matt Chapman scores.7–4
8Gabriel Moreno singles on a line drive to left fielder Jesus Rodriguez. Ildemaro Vargas scores.7–3
7Eric Haase homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.6–3
7Ketel Marte homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Tommy Troy scores.6–2
6Ildemaro Vargas grounds into a force out, second baseman Casey Schmitt to shortstop Willy Adames. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Nolan Arenado out at 2nd. Ildemaro Vargas to 1st.4–2
3Casey Schmitt singles on a line drive to left fielder Tommy Troy. Willy Adames scores.3–2
2Adrian Del Castillo homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.3–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
