Nationals at Giants
WSH10–
SF11Last play · Bryce Eldridge hits a grand slam (4) to right field. Matt Chapman scores. Rafael Devers scores. Jung Hoo Lee scores.
Win probability
Giants100%
WSH 0%SF 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 2 – 0 SF
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryce Eldridge hits a grand slam (4) to right field. Matt Chapman scores. Rafael Devers scores. Jung Hoo Lee scores. (inning 9) — +69% Giants
9Bryce Eldridge hits a grand slam (4) to right field. Matt Chapman scores. Rafael Devers scores. Jung Hoo Lee scores.10–11
9Matt Chapman doubles (17) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Dylan Crews. Luis Arraez scores.10–7
9Curtis Mead homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field.10–6
8Buddy Kennedy challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Buddy Kennedy called out on strikes.9–6
8Drew Gilbert grounds out, first baseman Luis García Jr. to pitcher Orlando Ribalta. Bryce Eldridge scores. Daniel Susac to 3rd.9–5
8Daniel Susac doubles (5) on a line drive to left fielder Daylen Lile. Jung Hoo Lee scores. Bryce Eldridge to 3rd.9–4
8Rafael Devers homers (9) on a fly ball to center field.9–3
8Matt Chapman homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.9–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.