Cubs at Giants
Last play · Luis Arraez grounds out, shortstop Dansby Swanson to first baseman Michael Busch.
Win probability
Giants0%
CHC 100%SF 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 6 – 1 SF
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -132
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ian Happ homers (16) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 5) — -13% Cubs
5Pedro Ramírez homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.6–1
5Ian Happ homers (16) on a fly ball to left field.5–1
4Michael Busch walks. Dansby Swanson scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong to 3rd. Alex Bregman to 2nd.4–1
3Luis Arraez triples (6) on a fly ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Drew Gilbert scores.3–1
3Nico Hoerner grounds out to first baseman Rafael Devers.3–0
3Seiya Suzuki singles on a line drive to left fielder Casey Schmitt. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Michael Busch to 2nd.2–0
1Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
