Cubs at Giants
Last play · Pedro Ramírez flies out to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee.
Win probability
Giants100%
CHC 0%SF 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 0 – 3 SF
Giants led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -132
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Chapman homers (7) on a line drive to center field. Drew Gilbert scores. (inning 5) — +18% Giants
8Daniel Susac singles on a fly ball to right fielder Michael Conforto. Casey Schmitt scores.1–5
8Alex Bregman singles on a pop up to first baseman Casey Schmitt. Dansby Swanson scores. Alex Bregman to 2nd. Throwing error by first baseman Casey Schmitt.1–4
7Bryce Eldridge singles on a ground ball to left fielder Ian Happ. Matt Chapman scores.0–4
5Matt Chapman homers (7) on a line drive to center field. Drew Gilbert scores.0–3
5Drew Gilbert doubles (7) on a fly ball to left fielder Ian Happ. Jung Hoo Lee scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
