Cubs at Giants
Last play · Rafael Devers called out on strikes.
Win probability
Giants0%
CHC 100%SF 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 5 – 0 SF
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 49.9% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-122 / +101
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Busch homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Carson Kelly scores. Alex Bregman scores. (inning 5) — -17% Cubs
9Bryce Eldridge homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.5–1
5Michael Busch homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Carson Kelly scores. Alex Bregman scores.5–0
4Nico Hoerner out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Casey Schmitt. Seiya Suzuki scores.2–0
4Seiya Suzuki doubles (7) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Ian Happ scores. Seiya Suzuki to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
