Braves at Giants
Last play · Drake Baldwin strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Giants100%
ATL 0%SF 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 5 SF
Giants led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 49.7% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-186 / +153
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Rafael Devers homers (13) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 2) — +15% Giants
3Rafael Devers homers (14) on a fly ball to right field. Luis Arraez scores. Casey Schmitt scores.0–5
2Drew Gilbert out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Bryce Eldridge scores.0–2
2Rafael Devers homers (13) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
