Braves at Giants
Last play · Mike Yastrzemski strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Giants100%
ATL 0%SF 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 0 SF
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 49.7% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-186 / +153
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Rafael Devers singles on a ground ball to third baseman Austin Riley. Luis Arraez scores. Heliot Ramos to 3rd. Throwing error by third baseman Austin Riley. (inning 6) — +19% Giants
9Austin Riley grounds out to first baseman Rafael Devers. Matt Olson scores.2–3
8Michael Harris II out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Victor Bericoto in foul territory. Eli White scores.1–3
7Luis Arraez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Eli White. Drew Gilbert scores. Matt Chapman to 3rd.0–3
6Jung Hoo Lee singles on a ground ball to second baseman Ozzie Albies. Heliot Ramos scores. Rafael Devers to 3rd. Jung Hoo Lee to 2nd. Throwing error by second baseman Ozzie Albies.0–2
6Rafael Devers singles on a ground ball to third baseman Austin Riley. Luis Arraez scores. Heliot Ramos to 3rd. Throwing error by third baseman Austin Riley.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
