Blue Jays at Giants
Last play · Victor Bericoto flies out to right fielder Nathan Lukes.
Win probability
Giants0%
TOR 100%SF 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 8 – 3 SF
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jonatan Clase homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Brandon Valenzuela scores. Sean Keys scores. (inning 2) — -33% Blue Jays
9Vladimir Guerrero Jr. grounds into a double play, shortstop Willy Adames to second baseman Luis Arraez to first baseman Bryce Eldridge. Ernie Clement scores. Nathan Lukes out at 2nd. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out at 1st.9–3
5Luis Arraez doubles (20) on a line drive to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Heliot Ramos scores.8–3
3Rafael Devers grounds into a double play, shortstop Andrés Giménez to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Heliot Ramos scores. Luis Arraez to 3rd. Casey Schmitt out at 2nd. Rafael Devers out at 1st.8–2
3Ernie Clement out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Heliot Ramos. Jonatan Clase scores.8–1
3Andrés Giménez singles on a line drive to left fielder Victor Bericoto. Sean Keys scores. Jonatan Clase to 3rd.7–1
3Sean Keys singles on a ground ball to right fielder Heliot Ramos, deflected by first baseman Bryce Eldridge. Kazuma Okamoto scores. Brandon Valenzuela scores.6–1
3Brandon Valenzuela singles on a line drive to center fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Kazuma Okamoto to 2nd.4–1
2Victor Bericoto singles on a ground ball to second baseman Ernie Clement. Rafael Devers scores. Bryce Eldridge to 2nd.3–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
