Rockies at Giants
Last play · Willi Castro grounds out, second baseman Luis Arraez to first baseman Rafael Devers.
Win probability
Giants100%
COL 0%SF 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 1 – 1 SF
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Casey Schmitt homers (19) on a fly ball to left center field. Heliot Ramos scores. Luis Arraez scores. (inning 6) — +36% Giants
8Kyle Karros homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field.2–4
6Casey Schmitt homers (19) on a fly ball to left center field. Heliot Ramos scores. Luis Arraez scores.1–4
5Jesus Rodriguez doubles (1) on a fly ball to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Bryce Eldridge scores.1–1
3Mickey Moniak singles on a fly ball to center fielder Drew Gilbert.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
