Brewers at Giants
Last play · Jackson Chourio called out on strikes.
Win probability
Giants100%
MIL 0%SF 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 0 – 3 SF
Giants led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.3% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-150 / +124
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Grant McCray homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Willy Adames scores. (inning 4) — +17% Giants
4Grant McCray homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Willy Adames scores.0–3
3Luis Arraez singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jake Bauers. Jesus Rodriguez scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
