Astros at Giants
Last play · Jung Hoo Lee grounds out, shortstop Jeremy Peña to first baseman Isaac Paredes.
Win probability
Giants0%
HOU 100%SF 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 1 – 2 SF
Giants led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-187 / +173
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cam Smith singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee, deflected by second baseman Osleivis Basabe. Nick Allen scores. Cam Smith out at 2nd on the throw, right fielder Jung Hoo Lee to shortstop Willy Adames. (inning 9) — -38% Astros
10Isaac Paredes doubles (21) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Grant McCray. LaMonte Wade Jr. scores. Jeremy Peña scores.6–3
10Jeremy Peña singles on a ground ball to left fielder Grant McCray. Cam Smith scores. LaMonte Wade Jr. to 2nd.4–3
9Cam Smith singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee, deflected by second baseman Osleivis Basabe. Nick Allen scores. Cam Smith out at 2nd on the throw, right fielder Jung Hoo Lee to shortstop Willy Adames.3–3
7Drew Gilbert homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.2–3
7Cam Smith homers (16) on a line drive to left field.2–2
5Jung Hoo Lee homers (9) on a fly ball to right field.1–2
4Drew Gilbert out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Taylor Trammell. Bryce Eldridge scores.1–1
1Jose Altuve out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Grant McCray. Yordan Alvarez scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
