Astros at Giants
Last play · Jung Hoo Lee grounds out, second baseman Nick Allen to first baseman Christian Walker.
Win probability
Giants0%
HOU 100%SF 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 0 – 1 SF
Giants led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-147 / +137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Allen out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Victor Bericoto. Taylor Trammell scores. (inning 8) — -26% Astros
8Nick Allen out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Victor Bericoto. Taylor Trammell scores.2–1
7Nelson Velázquez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Isaac Paredes scores.1–1
1Victor Bericoto singles on a line drive to left fielder Taylor Trammell. Willy Adames scores. Rafael Devers to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
