Astros at Giants
Last play · Jeremy Peña grounds out, shortstop Willy Adames to first baseman Bryce Eldridge.
Win probability
Giants100%
HOU 0%SF 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 1 – 3 SF
Giants led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-147 / +137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yordan Alvarez out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Victor Bericoto. Cam Smith scores. (inning 2) — -15% Astros
6Christian Koss doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Nelson Velázquez. Drew Cavanaugh scores. Christian Koss to 3rd. Christian Koss advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by shortstop Jeremy Peña.1–4
5Bryce Eldridge homers (12) on a fly ball to center field.1–3
4Drew Cavanaugh singles on a line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Drew Gilbert scores.1–2
2Drew Gilbert singles on a line drive to left fielder Nelson Velázquez. Rafael Devers scores.1–1
2Yordan Alvarez out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Victor Bericoto. Cam Smith scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
