D-backs at Giants
Last play · Ildemaro Vargas grounds out, shortstop Christian Koss to first baseman Rafael Devers.
Win probability
Giants100%
AZ 0%SF 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 1 – 2 SF
Giants led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-112 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gabriel Moreno homers (11) on a line drive to left field. (inning 4) — -16% D-backs
8Shay Whitcomb out on a sacrifice bunt, pitcher Juan Burgos to first baseman Tim Tawa. Jonah Cox scores. Turner Hill to 2nd.1–6
8Turner Hill singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Bryce Eldridge scores. Jonah Cox to 3rd.1–5
8Jonah Cox singles on a fly ball to center fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Rafael Devers scores.1–4
8Bryce Eldridge doubles (16) on a line drive to left fielder Max Kepler. Jung Hoo Lee scores. Rafael Devers to 3rd.1–3
5Drew Gilbert out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Max Kepler. Christian Koss scores.1–2
4Gabriel Moreno homers (11) on a line drive to left field.1–1
1Drew Gilbert homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
