D-backs at Giants
Last play · Bryce Eldridge strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Giants0%
AZ 100%SF 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 6 – 5 SF
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-114 / +106
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tim Tawa homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Nolan Arenado scores. (inning 3) — -26% D-backs
8Turner Hill grounds into a force out, first baseman Tim Tawa to shortstop Geraldo Perdomo. Jung Hoo Lee scores. Shay Whitcomb out at 2nd. Turner Hill to 1st.10–6
7James McCann singles on a line drive to left fielder Turner Hill. Geraldo Perdomo scores.10–5
6Corbin Carroll out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Turner Hill. Ildemaro Vargas scores.9–5
6Ildemaro Vargas singles on a line drive to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Tim Tawa scores. James McCann scores.8–5
4Christian Koss homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Turner Hill scores.6–5
3Bryce Eldridge doubles (17) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jordan Lawlar. Rafael Devers scores.6–3
3Tim Tawa homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Nolan Arenado scores.6–2
3Corbin Carroll homers (19) on a fly ball to center field. Lars Nootbaar scores.3–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
