D-backs at Giants
Last play · Jonah Cox strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Giants0%
AZ 100%SF 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 0 – 0 SF
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-114 / +106
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Lars Nootbaar hits a grand slam (6) to right field. Gabriel Moreno scores. Nolan Arenado scores. Tim Tawa scores. (inning 7) — -45% D-backs
9Ildemaro Vargas grounds into a double play, shortstop Christian Koss to second baseman Nate Furman to first baseman Rafael Devers. Jorge Barrosa scores. Jordan Lawlar to 3rd. Ryan Waldschmidt out at 2nd. Ildemaro Vargas out at 1st.7–1
9Jordan Lawlar singles on a ground ball to left fielder Turner Hill, deflected by shortstop Christian Koss. Tim Tawa scores. Jorge Barrosa to 2nd.6–1
8Jung Hoo Lee singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Rafael Devers scores. Bryce Eldridge to 3rd.5–1
8Geraldo Perdomo singles on a ground ball to left fielder Turner Hill. Corbin Carroll scores. Geraldo Perdomo out at 1st on the throw, left fielder Turner Hill to third baseman Shay Whitcomb to second baseman Nate Furman to shortstop Christian Koss to first baseman Rafael Devers. Gabriel Moreno to 2nd.5–0
7Lars Nootbaar hits a grand slam (6) to right field. Gabriel Moreno scores. Nolan Arenado scores. Tim Tawa scores.4–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
