Cardinals at Giants
Last play · Iván Herrera grounds out, third baseman Brett Harris to first baseman Bryce Eldridge.
Win probability
Giants100%
STL 0%SF 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 5 – 1 SF
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-123 / +102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Giants favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jung Hoo Lee doubles (29) on a line drive to right fielder Joshua Báez. Bryce Eldridge scores. Jonah Cox scores. (inning 8) — +45% Giants
8Shay Whitcomb doubles (3) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Joshua Báez. Jung Hoo Lee scores.6–7
8Jung Hoo Lee doubles (29) on a line drive to right fielder Joshua Báez. Bryce Eldridge scores. Jonah Cox scores.6–6
8Jonah Cox singles on a ground ball to shortstop Thomas Saggese. Turner Hill scores. Bryce Eldridge to 2nd.6–4
8Bryce Eldridge singles on a ground ball to center fielder Nathan Church. Drew Cavanaugh scores. Brett Harris scores. Turner Hill to 3rd.6–3
6José Fermín out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Thomas Saggese scores. Nathan Church to 3rd.6–1
5Leo Bernal grounds into a double play, shortstop Christian Koss to second baseman Jonah Cox to first baseman Bryce Eldridge. Bryan Torres scores. Iván Herrera to 3rd. Alec Burleson out at 2nd. Leo Bernal out at 1st.5–1
3Leo Bernal homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Iván Herrera scores. Alec Burleson scores.4–1
2Nolan Gorman singles on a fly ball to left fielder Grant McCray. Joshua Báez scores.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
