Astros at Mariners
Last play · Jeremy Peña grounds into a force out, fielded by third baseman Leo Rivas. Joey Loperfido out at 3rd.
Win probability
Mariners100%
HOU 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 3 – 5 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.4% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -163
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mariners favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Vázquez doubles (3) on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Isaac Paredes scores. Christian Walker scores. Carlos Correa scores. (inning 2) — -28% Astros
8Yordan Alvarez homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Christian Vázquez scores. Jeremy Peña scores.6–9
7Cal Raleigh grounds out, second baseman Isaac Paredes to first baseman Christian Walker. Leo Rivas scores. J.P. Crawford to 2nd.3–9
7J.P. Crawford singles on a ground ball to center fielder Joey Loperfido. Dominic Canzone scores. Leo Rivas to 3rd.3–8
7Leo Rivas walks.3–7
7Dominic Canzone doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Luke Raley scores. Cole Young to 3rd.3–6
5Randy Arozarena homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Josh Naylor scores.3–5
2Christian Vázquez doubles (3) on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Isaac Paredes scores. Christian Walker scores. Carlos Correa scores.3–3
1Mariners challenged (tag play), call on the field was overturned: Luke Raley grounds out, second baseman Isaac Paredes to first baseman Christian Walker. Julio Rodríguez scores. Josh Naylor to 3rd. Randy Arozarena to 2nd.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
