Astros at Mariners
Last play · J.P. Crawford singles on a line drive to left fielder Joey Loperfido. Cole Young scores. Brendan Donovan to 3rd. Leo Rivas to 2nd.
Win probability
Mariners100%
HOU 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 7 – 7 SEA
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+159 / -193
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mariners favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Taylor Trammell doubles (1) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Carlos Correa scores. Joey Loperfido scores. Cam Smith scores. (inning 2) — -36% Astros
9J.P. Crawford singles on a line drive to left fielder Joey Loperfido. Cole Young scores. Brendan Donovan to 3rd. Leo Rivas to 2nd.7–8
5Julio Rodríguez homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. J.P. Crawford scores.7–7
5Cal Raleigh out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Joey Loperfido. Leo Rivas scores.7–5
5J.P. Crawford singles on a line drive to center fielder Taylor Trammell. Cole Young scores. Dominic Canzone scores. Leo Rivas to 3rd. Fielding error by center fielder Taylor Trammell.7–4
4Isaac Paredes singles on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Taylor Trammell scores. Jeremy Peña to 3rd.7–2
3Cam Smith singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Carlos Correa scores. Joey Loperfido scores.6–2
3Yordan Alvarez homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.4–2
2Taylor Trammell doubles (1) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Carlos Correa scores. Joey Loperfido scores. Cam Smith scores.3–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
