Astros at Mariners
Last play · Isaac Paredes strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Mariners100%
HOU 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 1 – 4 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+159 / -193
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mariners favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Julio Rodríguez walks. J.P. Crawford scores. Dominic Canzone to 3rd. Cole Young to 2nd. (inning 2) — +10% Mariners
6Luke Raley triples (1) on a line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Josh Naylor scores. Randy Arozarena scores.1–6
5Yainer Diaz homers (1) on a line drive to left field.1–4
3Brendan Donovan out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Cam Smith in foul territory. Luke Raley scores. J.P. Crawford to 3rd.0–4
3Cole Young walks. Randy Arozarena scores. Luke Raley to 3rd. J.P. Crawford to 2nd.0–3
2Julio Rodríguez walks. J.P. Crawford scores. Dominic Canzone to 3rd. Cole Young to 2nd.0–2
1Randy Arozarena singles on a line drive to center fielder Taylor Trammell. Brendan Donovan scores. Josh Naylor to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
