Astros at Mariners
Last play · Taylor Trammell grounds out, first baseman Josh Naylor to pitcher Cole Wilcox.
Win probability
Mariners100%
HOU 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 2 – 6 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+149 / -181
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mariners favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Naylor homers (1) on a line drive to right center field. Cal Raleigh scores. Julio Rodríguez scores. (inning 1) — +24% Mariners
5Luke Raley singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Julio Rodríguez scores.2–6
5Nick Allen grounds into a double play, second baseman Cole Young to shortstop J.P. Crawford to first baseman Josh Naylor. Taylor Trammell scores. Yainer Diaz out at 2nd. Nick Allen out at 1st.2–5
5Yainer Diaz singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Cam Smith scores. Taylor Trammell to 3rd.1–5
3Josh Naylor homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Cal Raleigh scores.0–5
1Josh Naylor homers (1) on a line drive to right center field. Cal Raleigh scores. Julio Rodríguez scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
