Rangers at Mariners
TEX3–
SEA7Last play · Brandon Nimmo strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mariners100%
TEX 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 0 – 3 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7 ↑
fair over 46.9% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dominic Canzone singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Evan Carter. Randy Arozarena scores. Luke Raley scores. (inning 4) — +17% Mariners
9Ezequiel Duran doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Josh Smith scores. Josh Jung to 3rd.3–7
9Evan Carter out on a sacrifice fly to second baseman Cole Young in foul territory. Wyatt Langford scores.2–7
8Leo Rivas out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Evan Carter. Cole Young scores.1–7
8Cole Young singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Evan Carter, deflected by second baseman Ezequiel Duran. Luke Raley scores. Dominic Canzone scores.1–6
6Luke Raley homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.1–4
6Josh Jung homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.1–3
4Dominic Canzone singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Evan Carter. Randy Arozarena scores. Luke Raley scores.0–3
1Julio Rodríguez singles on a ground ball to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. J.P. Crawford scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.