Rangers at Mariners
Last play · Evan Carter grounds out to first baseman Connor Joe.
Win probability
Mariners100%
TEX 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 0 – 5 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7 ↑
fair over 47.4% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · J.P. Crawford homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Mitch Garver scores. (inning 2) — +16% Mariners
7Evan Carter doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Rob Refsnyder. Wyatt Langford scores. Joc Pederson to 3rd.2–5
7Josh Jung out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Rob Refsnyder. Corey Seager scores. Wyatt Langford to 3rd.1–5
5Randy Arozarena homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Julio Rodríguez scores.0–5
2J.P. Crawford homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Mitch Garver scores.0–3
1Rob Refsnyder homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
