Athletics at Mariners
Last play · Cal Raleigh flies out to right fielder Lawrence Butler.
Win probability
Mariners0%
ATH 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 1 – 3 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+143 / -173
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Max Muncy out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Dominic Canzone. Tyler Soderstrom scores. Jacob Wilson to 3rd. Jeff McNeil to 2nd. (inning 8) — -26% Athletics
9Leo Rivas doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Cole Young scores.6–4
8Lawrence Butler singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Dominic Canzone. Jacob Wilson scores. Jeff McNeil scores.6–3
8Max Muncy out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Dominic Canzone. Tyler Soderstrom scores. Jacob Wilson to 3rd. Jeff McNeil to 2nd.4–3
6Shea Langeliers homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.3–3
6Nick Kurtz homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.2–3
4Carlos Cortes homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.1–3
2Dominic Canzone homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.0–3
1Josh Naylor doubles (1) on a ground ball to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Julio Rodríguez scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
