Athletics at Mariners
Last play · Luke Raley strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mariners0%
ATH 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 2 – 2 SEA
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+157 / -192
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Naylor out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Zack Gelof. Rob Refsnyder scores. (inning 3) — +14% Mariners
9Jacob Wilson singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Nick Kurtz scores. Shea Langeliers to 3rd. Tyler Soderstrom to 2nd.5–2
7Shea Langeliers homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.4–2
6Jacob Wilson doubles (4) on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Tyler Soderstrom scores.3–2
5Cal Raleigh homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.2–2
4Jeff McNeil homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.2–1
3Josh Naylor out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Zack Gelof. Rob Refsnyder scores.1–1
1Tyler Soderstrom doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Rob Refsnyder. Nick Kurtz scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
