Athletics at Mariners
Last play · Josh Naylor singles on a line drive to left fielder Tyler Soderstrom. Cal Raleigh scores. Julio Rodríguez to 2nd.
Win probability
Mariners100%
ATH 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 3 – 2 SEA
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+157 / -192
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Kurtz homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 9) — -38% Athletics
9Josh Naylor singles on a line drive to left fielder Tyler Soderstrom. Cal Raleigh scores. Julio Rodríguez to 2nd.4–5
9Nick Kurtz homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.4–4
7Julio Rodríguez grounds out, shortstop Jacob Wilson to first baseman Nick Kurtz. J.P. Crawford scores.3–4
6Rob Refsnyder out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Lawrence Butler. Josh Naylor scores. Mitch Garver to 3rd.3–3
3Cal Raleigh homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.3–2
3Jacob Wilson doubles (5) on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Carlos Cortes scores.3–1
1Randy Arozarena out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Tyler Soderstrom. J.P. Crawford scores.2–1
1Jeff McNeil singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Shea Langeliers scores. Carlos Cortes to 3rd. Fielding error by center fielder Julio Rodríguez.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
