Royals at Mariners
Last play · Cal Raleigh pops out to shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.
Win probability
Mariners0%
KC 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 4 – 3 SEA
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Julio Rodríguez homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. J.P. Crawford scores. (inning 7) — +38% Mariners
8Lane Thomas singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Salvador Perez scores.7–6
7Julio Rodríguez homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. J.P. Crawford scores.6–6
6Randy Arozarena homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.6–4
6Jac Caglianone homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.6–3
6Vinnie Pasquantino homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.5–3
5Connor Joe homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.4–3
1Julio Rodríguez homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. J.P. Crawford scores.4–2
1Isaac Collins doubles (2) on a fly ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena, deflected by third baseman Leo Rivas. Salvador Perez scores.4–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
