Royals at Mariners
Last play · J.P. Crawford grounds out, third baseman Maikel Garcia to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino.
Win probability
Mariners0%
KC 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 1 – 2 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jac Caglianone singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Lane Thomas scores. Jac Caglianone to 3rd. Jac Caglianone advances to 3rd, on a fielding error by center fielder Julio Rodríguez. (inning 9) — -38% Royals
10Maikel Garcia out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Michael Massey scores.3–2
9Jac Caglianone singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Lane Thomas scores. Jac Caglianone to 3rd. Jac Caglianone advances to 3rd, on a fielding error by center fielder Julio Rodríguez.2–2
5Josh Naylor strikes out swinging.1–2
3Maikel Garcia doubles (9) on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Kyle Isbel scores.1–1
1Josh Naylor singles on a line drive to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Julio Rodríguez scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
