Braves at Mariners
Last play · Drake Baldwin grounds out, second baseman Cole Young to first baseman Josh Naylor.
Win probability
Mariners100%
ATL 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 1 – 0 SEA
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luke Raley homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Randy Arozarena scores. Dominic Canzone scores. (inning 6) — +34% Mariners
6J.P. Crawford homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Mitch Garver scores.4–5
6Luke Raley homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Randy Arozarena scores. Dominic Canzone scores.4–3
6Austin Riley homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.4–0
6Matt Olson homers (12) on a fly ball to center field.3–0
6Ozzie Albies homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.2–0
1Drake Baldwin homers (9) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
