Braves at Mariners
Last play · Dominic Canzone grounds out, second baseman Ozzie Albies to first baseman Matt Olson.
Win probability
Mariners0%
ATL 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 2 – 2 SEA
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+117 / -141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Olson homers (13) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 9) — -46% Braves
9Matt Olson homers (13) on a fly ball to center field.3–2
4Mauricio Dubón doubles (9) on a ground ball to right fielder Luke Raley. Ozzie Albies scores. Matt Olson scores.2–2
3J.P. Crawford homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. Mitch Garver scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
