Braves at Mariners
Last play · Mauricio Dubón challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Mauricio Dubón called out on strikes.
Win probability
Mariners100%
ATL 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 1 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+117 / -141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Julio Rodríguez challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Julio Rodríguez called out on strikes. (inning 8) — +12% Mariners
8Cole Young doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Josh Naylor scores.1–3
8Dominic Smith out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Mike Yastrzemski scores.1–2
6Julio Rodríguez homers (5) on a fly ball to center field.0–2
3Cal Raleigh grounds into a double play, shortstop Jim Jarvis to second baseman Ozzie Albies to first baseman Matt Olson. Jhonny Pereda scores. Leo Rivas to 3rd. J.P. Crawford out at 2nd. Cal Raleigh out at 1st.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
