Padres at Mariners
Last play · Brendan Donovan strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mariners0%
SD 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 0 SEA
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+144 / -175
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Miguel Andujar doubles (10) on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Gavin Sheets scores. (inning 4) — -14% Padres
7Sung-Mun Song grounds out to first baseman Josh Naylor. Miguel Andujar scores. Ramón Laureano to 2nd.2–0
4Miguel Andujar doubles (10) on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Gavin Sheets scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
