White Sox at Mariners
Last play · Drew Romo strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mariners100%
CWS 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCWS 0 – 2 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%White Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Randy Arozarena doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Tristan Peters. Jhonny Pereda scores. Randy Arozarena to 3rd. (inning 3) — +12% Mariners
8Colt Emerson homers (1) on a line drive to right field. Josh Naylor scores. Dominic Canzone scores.1–6
7Tristan Peters homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.1–3
6Josh Naylor singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jarred Kelenic. Randy Arozarena scores.0–3
3Randy Arozarena doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Tristan Peters. Jhonny Pereda scores. Randy Arozarena to 3rd.0–2
1Julio Rodríguez homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
