White Sox at Mariners
Last play · Dominic Canzone strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mariners0%
CWS 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCWS 0 – 1 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.7% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%White Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Chase Meidroth singles on a ground ball to right fielder Connor Joe. Derek Hill scores. Miguel Vargas to 3rd. Chase Meidroth to 2nd. (inning 9) — -38% White Sox
9Andrew Benintendi singles on a ground ball to second baseman Cole Young, deflected by first baseman Josh Naylor. Miguel Vargas scores. Chase Meidroth to 3rd.2–1
9Chase Meidroth singles on a ground ball to right fielder Connor Joe. Derek Hill scores. Miguel Vargas to 3rd. Chase Meidroth to 2nd.1–1
1Patrick Wisdom grounds into a force out, shortstop Colson Montgomery to second baseman Chase Meidroth. Julio Rodríguez scores. Randy Arozarena to 3rd. Josh Naylor out at 2nd. Patrick Wisdom to 1st.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
