D-backs at Mariners
Last play · Randy Arozarena doubles (16) on a line drive to center fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. J.P. Crawford scores. Josh Naylor to 3rd.
Win probability
Mariners100%
AZ 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 1 – 5 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 48.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+129 / -156
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ildemaro Vargas reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Josh Naylor. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Gabriel Moreno to 3rd. Tim Tawa to 2nd. (inning 9) — -38% D-backs
10Randy Arozarena doubles (16) on a line drive to center fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. J.P. Crawford scores. Josh Naylor to 3rd.6–7
9Ildemaro Vargas reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Josh Naylor. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Gabriel Moreno to 3rd. Tim Tawa to 2nd.6–6
6Luke Raley homers (12) on a fly ball to right field.5–6
6Jose Fernandez singles on a line drive to right fielder Luke Raley. Adrian Del Castillo scores. Ildemaro Vargas to 3rd.5–5
6Ildemaro Vargas grounds into a force out, first baseman Josh Naylor to shortstop J.P. Crawford. Gabriel Moreno scores. Adrian Del Castillo to 3rd. Ryan Waldschmidt out at 2nd. Ildemaro Vargas to 1st.4–5
6Gabriel Moreno doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Corbin Carroll scores. Geraldo Perdomo scores.3–5
5J.P. Crawford homers (9) on a fly ball to center field. Jhonny Pereda scores.1–5
4Geraldo Perdomo homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.1–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
